As the Economy Sinks So Do the Odds of a Tax Cut One of the riskiest financial moves you make this year could be listening to the presidential candidates-and banking on a tax cut after the November elections. John McCain and Barack Obama both promise that widespread tax cuts will be one major way they'll revive the economy and help lift consumers' sagging spirits. But here's what you're not likely to hear either candidate say before Election Day on November 4: There's no money left for tax cuts. http://www.usnews.com/blogs/flowchart/2008/10/9/as-the-economy-sinks-so-do-odds-of-a-tax-cut.html
If John McCain wants my vote he must dump Sarah Palin and fast. Judging by the latest polls showing Barack Obama moving ahead and gaining traction, I'm not the only one that feels this way. The outcome of the election is key to investors worried about a range of issues including the $700 billion federal bailout of Wall Street.
Obama may lack the experience I would hope to see in a presidential candidate but to quote a friend and fellow McCain supporter "Sarah Palin is an idiot and the only way she should be allowed in the White House is if she buys a tour ticket." This is not a unique sentiment given the Sarah Palin must go stance taken by conservative columnist Kathleen Parker of the Los Angeles Times. She says her cringe reflex is being exhausted.
I do not like Obama's proposals on capital gains taxes, a windfall oil profits tax, new government programs and several other issues, but the idea of Palin being second-in-command is a joke. And speaking of jokes, if I have misjudged, and McCain and Palin win the election, then Oprah will be surpassed as the wealthiest female in the entertainment industry. The new titan will be 30 Rock and former Saturday Night Live star Tina Fey who will be racking up fat paychecks based on the never ending material supplied by Palin.
The upcoming holiday season may be the worst in decades for retailers large and small. Upscale operations like Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) could lose big parts of their customer bases as Wall Street layoffs push a number of well-to-do shoppers out of work.
According toThe Wall Street Journal, "As economists predict the worst holiday sales season since the recession of 1991, retailers are fighting back with an arsenal of new selling strategies, staff cutbacks and more emphasis than ever on low prices."
A disastrous holiday season could put tremendous pressure on weak retailers including Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD) and Macy's (NYSE: M). Macy's has already cut back its number of stores. Sears could be forced to close hundreds of its 3,800 K-Mart and Sears outlets.
A cratering of the retail market will cause the companies in the industry toward the sort of disaster Wall Street is weathering. Some of the largest players may not make it at all, and others will have to cut so drastically that they will never again look like they did in better times.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) is engaged in the design, manufacture, and retailing of fine jewelry, timepieces, sterling silverware, china, crystal, stationery, fragrances and personal accessories. The firm sells its goods exclusively through some 150 stores worldwide, a Web site and catalogs.
The company pleased investors last week, when it reported Q2 EPS of 63 cents and revenues of $732.4 million. Analysts had been expecting 55 cents and $720.6 million. Management also guided FY09 EPS to $2.82-$2.92 ($2.83 consensus). The CEO noted, "Our continued expansion throughout Asia and Europe should contribute to increasingly consistent and resilient long-term earnings growth." Lehman Brothers subsequently reiterated its "overweight" rating on the issue.
We're doing a rather last-minute interview here for publication Thursday morning (the 28th). What is on your mind to talk about?
Well, with the Democratic National Convention underway and therefore political season in full swing, lots of claims and counter claims will be made about taxes. Amid all the spin, careful analysis often gets lost. The Tax Policy Center (TPC), a non-partisan group, sat down with the top economic advisors for both campaigns and attempted to sort out just what the implications are from the proposals of each side would be.
And what is the verdict?
Well first of all, I strongly urge all readers who care about the long-term fiscal health of the U.S. Government to read the report.
But to my mind, given the massive size of the deficit this year and projected for next year, both McCain and Obama are being too "generous." Still, the charge of "tax and spend" is absurd if applied to either candidate, while the charge of "borrow and spend" is valid for both of them.
The Democrats have nearly wrapped up their national convention making history by nominating Barack Obama the first African-American, or person of any color for that matter, to lead a major party in pursuit of the presidency. Tonight they put a big bow on the whole affair and start the next leg of the race.
Speaking of big bows it might be in order for Barack to be giving thank-you gifts to the women in his life, Michelle and Hillary -- a little blue box might be just the 'ticket'. In her daily Before the Bell post my colleague Melly Alazraki reported about Tiffany's super quarter:
U.S. jeweler Tiffany & Co (NYSE: TIF) posted double the quarterly profit from a year ago on Thursday, benefiting from strong international sales and solid tourist spending at its New York flagship store. Net profit was $80.8 million, or 63 cents per share, in its fiscal second quarter, up from $40.5 million, or 29 cents per share a year earlier, and beating estimates of 55 cents per share. Revenue grew 11%. Tiffany also raised its 2008 profit outlook on strong sales in Europe and Asia and expected improvement in the U.S.
TIF has been up and down this year, like most stocks, since I wrote about it last February in Serious Money: Pondering: Home Depot, Tiffany & Wells Fargo. Shares have jumped this morning by almost 10%, trading as high as $44.45 after closing yesterday at $39.61.
Stock futures were flattish Thursday morning as oil prices rose due to continued concern over Gustav. However, some retailers have posted better-than-expected earnings. Still, there are several economic reports due before the open that could sway sentiment either way, including revised GDP for the second quarter. [Update: Futures turned positive after the report U.S. gross domestic product grew by 3.3% in the second quarter - much higher than previously stated.]
U.S. jeweler Tiffany & Co (NYSE: TIF) posted double the quarterly profit from a year ago on Thursday, benefiting from strong international sales and solid tourist spending at its New York flagship store. Net profit was $80.8 million, or 63 cents per share, in its fiscal second quarter, up from $40.5 million, or 29 cents per share a year earlier, and beating estimates of 55 cents per share. Revenue grew 11%. Tiffany also raised its 2008 profit outlook on strong sales in Europe and Asia and expected improvement in the U.S. TIF shares are up over 6% in premarket trading.
On the other hand, department store retailer Sears Holdings (NASDAQ: SHLD) reported a 62% plunge in second-quarter net profit to $65 million, or 50 cents per share. Excluding a gain, Sears earned 21 cents, trailing some analysts' estimates by 15 cents. Chief Executive Bruce Johnson said the results were affected by the "slowing economy." It seems some, though, still have confidence in Chairman Lampert.
Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM), the mortgage finance giant, shook up its executive ranks Wednesday. "Its chief financial officer and two other top executives are leaving the company. Three current executives were promoted to replace them." CEO Mudd kept his job. Shares of Fannie and sibling Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) have been rising after concern over a government bailout lessened. In premarket trading, FNM and FRE shares are up over 6% and 5% respectively.
Results for the tech stocks in last week's preview were a mixed bag, some beats, some misses, some in line. By and large, expectations for tech companies reporting results this week remain high, though. Here's what analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are anticipating in the way of earnings, as compared to the same period of the previous year.
"Tiffany and Co. is a jeweler and specialty retailer whose merchandise offerings include an extensive selection of jewelry (83% of net sales in fiscal 2006) as well as timepieces, sterling silverware, china, crystal, stationery, fragrances and accessories.
"Tiffany was founded in 1837 when Charles Lewis Tiffany opened a store in downtown Manhattan. Today, more than 150 Tiffany & Co. stores and boutiques serve customers in U.S. and international markets.
"The company's key growth strategies are to selectively expand its channels of distribution in important markets around the world without compromising the long-term value of the Tiffany & Co. trademark; to increase sales in existing stores by developing new products.
• Ranked in Top 100 Global Brand by BusinessWeek in 2007 with a brand value of $4 billion (as much as the current market cap). • Since 2003, TIF has bought back over 23 million shares, or 16% of the shares outstanding. • Management and insiders own 13% of shares. • Balance sheet is strong: Current ratio is 3.2 and long-term debt/equity is a manageable 11.5%.
"Overall, TIF is a well-run business, and a price of $34 or lower per share represents a very good value. If TIF can grow earnings at only 10% per annum and maintain a P/E of 15, the stock will handsomely reward investors during the next five years."
Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.
After four years, a federal judge has finally ruled in the counterfeit goods case in which Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) sued eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY), demanding it create better polices on its auction site and assume responsibility for the goods traded there.
But the judge ruled in favor of eBay, saying that "the law is clear: it is the trademark owner's burden to police its mark. [...] Tiffany must ultimately bear the burden of protecting its trademark."
No doubt, this is a significant victory for eBay and all online retailers that, while agreeing to take fake merchandise off their sites, want to be alerted to it by the owners of the trademarks. This means e-tailers don't need to police their sites for counterfeit goods, something that would have been quite costly.
If this sounds a little odd to you, maybe that's because of a recent suit regarding copyrighted material on Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG)'s YouTube. Viacom Inc. (NYSE: VIA) has sued the owner of the video sharing site for $1 billion in damages, accusing YouTube of enabling copyright infringement since users upload copyrighted material to the site.
The stock market was down today and the financial sector was hit as hard as anything else. These are the days you want to have your watch-list ready or perhaps your stock alerts triggered. I have been watching Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) for quite some time. Today at $27.00 I received an alert and decided to buy some.
As a value investor I am seeking not to just make a profit but to have as large a margin of safety as possible. That means I do not want to just buy a discounted stock but I want to "steal it". Patience is always in order, and usually is rewarded. That was the case when we watched Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) go from the low $40's to $57 per share and think we had missed the train, only to keep our eyes open as it fell back down to $36 where we pulled the trigger.
Last week TIF did us proud (see: Chasing Value: Tiffany's -- all that glitters) and although I am wrong way too often, I would be greatly surprised to see TIF anywhere near $36 ever again. It has reached $50 since we purchased it in April. The following chart illustrates the recent path of Wells Fargo.
"All that glitters is not gold" is a common refrain we hear from time to time and it is meant as a word of caution, but in this case, it's gold and diamonds and platinum served up in pretty little blue boxes. Today it was reported that Tiffany Profit Beats View, Hikes Outlook. Chief Executive Michael Kowalski said Tiffany would continue with its expansion in 2008, with plans to open 24 new stores across the United States, Asia-Pacific region and Europe.
However, no matter what the Wall Street stock pushers will tell you, I would not jump in here. Patience is in order and buying when there is a frenzy is a bad idea. You will see this in my previous posts on the company and I am offering the same here. You should add it to your watch list.
I do not expect TIF to see $36 dollars again, but we are speaking of likelihoods not certainties and there is no must own stock! Everything fluctuates and it is only worth buying an individual stock if there is a great chance of getting a bargain. I might look favorably at another purchase somewhere closer to $40 -- and if I do not get it, that's alright. Then I will buy something else.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: We own shares in TIF.
If John McCain wants my vote he must dump Sarah Palin and fast. Judging by 
The 
The Democrats have nearly wrapped up their national convention making history by nominating Barack Obama the first African-American, or person of any color for that matter, to lead a major party in pursuit of the presidency. Tonight they put a big bow on the whole affair and start the next leg of the race.
Stock futures were flattish Thursday morning as oil prices rose due to continued concern over Gustav. However, some retailers have posted better-than-expected earnings. Still, there are several economic reports due before the open that could sway sentiment either way, including revised GDP for the second quarter.
Results for the tech stocks in 
The week in preview: Mulling over techs, financials
'Crash-and-burn economy?' 'Bailout beer bust?' What should we call America's economic disaster?
Yogi is right: Ninety percent of this (economics) game is half-mental
